Factors associated with progression to death in patients with Lassa fever in Nigeria: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is endemic in several west African countries. Case-fatality rates ranging from 21% to 69% have been reported. The pathophysiology of the disease in humans and determinants of mortality remain poorly understood. We aimed to determine host protein biomarkers capable of determining disease outcome. METHODS: In this observational study, we analysed left-over blood samples from patients who tested positive for Lassa fever at Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Nigeria, between January, 2014, and April, 2017. We measured viral load, concentrations of clinical chemistry parameters, and levels of 62 circulating proteins involved in inflammation, immune response, and haemostasis. Patients with a known outcome (survival or death) and at least 200 µL of good-quality diagnostic sample were included in logistic regression modelling to assess the correlation of parameters with Lassa fever outcome. Individuals who gave consent could further be enrolled into a longitudinal analysis to assess the association of parameters with Lassa fever outcome over time. Participants were divided into two datasets for the statistical analysis: a primary dataset (samples taken between Jan 1, 2014, and April 1, 2016), and a secondary dataset (samples taken between April 1, 2016, and April 1, 2017). Biomarkers were ranked by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from highest (most predictive) to lowest (least predictive). FINDINGS: Of 554 patients who tested positive for Lassa fever during the study period, 201 (131 in the primary dataset and 70 in the secondary dataset) were included in the biomarker analysis, of whom 74 (49 in the primary dataset and 25 in the secondary dataset) had died and 127 (82 in the primary dataset and 45 in the secondary dataset) had survived. Cycle threshold values (indicating viral load) and levels of 18 host proteins at the time of admission to hospital were significantly correlated with fatal outcome. The best predictors of outcome in both datasets were plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; AUC 0·878 in the primary dataset and 0·876 in the secondary dataset), soluble thrombomodulin (TM; 0·839 in the primary dataset and 0·875 in the secondary dataset), and soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 1A (TNF-R1; 0·807 in the primary dataset and 0·851 in the secondary dataset), all of which had higher prediction accuracy than viral load (0·774 in the primary dataset and 0·837 in the secondary dataset). Longitudinal analysis (150 patients, of whom 36 died) showed that of the biomarkers that were predictive at admission, PAI-1 levels consistently decreased to normal levels in survivors but not in those who died. INTERPRETATION: The identification of PAI-1 and soluble TM as markers of fatal Lassa fever at admission, and of PAI-1 as a marker of fatal Lassa fever over time, suggests that dysregulated coagulation and fibrinolysis and endothelial damage have roles in the pathophysiology of Lassa fever, providing a mechanistic explanation for the association of Lassa fever with oedema and bleeding. These novel markers might aid in clinical risk stratification and disease monitoring. FUNDING: German Research Foundation, Leibniz Association, and US National Institutes of Health.

Phylogeography of Lassa Virus in Nigeria.

Lassa virus is genetically diverse with several lineages circulating in West Africa. This study aimed at describing the sequence variability of Lassa virus across Nigeria and inferring its spatiotemporal evolution. We sequenced and isolated 77 Lassa virus strains from 16 Nigerian states. The final data set, including previous works, comprised metadata and sequences of 219 unique strains sampled between 1969 and 2018 in 22 states. Most of this data originated from Lassa fever patients diagnosed at Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Edo State, Nigeria. The majority of sequences clustered with the main Nigerian lineages II and III, while a few sequences formed a new cluster related to Lassa virus strains from Hylomyscus pamfi Within lineages II and III, seven and five sublineages, respectively, were distinguishable. Phylogeographic analysis suggests an origin of lineage II in the southeastern part of the country around Ebonyi State and a main vector of dispersal toward the west across the Niger River, through Anambra, Kogi, Delta, and Edo into Ondo State. The frontline of virus dispersal appears to be in Ondo. Minor vectors are directed northeast toward Taraba and Adamawa and south toward Imo and Rivers. Lineage III might have spread from northern Plateau State into Kaduna, Nasarawa, Federal Capital Territory, and Bauchi. One sublineage moved south and crossed the Benue River into Benue State. This study provides a geographic mapping of lineages and phylogenetic clusters in Nigeria at a higher resolution. In addition, we estimated the direction and time frame of virus dispersal in the country.IMPORTANCE Lassa virus is the causative agent of Lassa fever, a viral hemorrhagic fever with a case fatality rate of approximately 30% in Africa. Previous studies disclosed a geographical pattern in the distribution of Lassa virus strains and a westward movement of the virus across West Africa during evolution. Our study provides a deeper understanding of the geography of genetic lineages and sublineages of the virus in Nigeria. In addition, we modeled how the virus spread in the country. This knowledge allows us to predict into which geographical areas the virus might spread in the future and prioritize areas for Lassa fever surveillance. Our study not only aimed to generate Lassa virus sequences from across Nigeria but also to isolate and conserve the respective viruses for future research. Both isolates and sequences are important for the development and evaluation of medical countermeasures to treat and prevent Lassa fever, such as diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.

Acute Lassa Virus Encephalitis with Lassa Virus in the Cerebrospinal Fluid but Absent in the Blood: A Case Report with a Positive Outcome.

It is rare both to have the central nervous system (CNS) as the main focus in the acute phase of Lassa fever infection without associated bleeding, and to find Lassa virus (LAV) in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) but not in the serum. We report the case of a 38-year-old Nigerian woman with mainly CNS manifestation of Lassa fever. She was admitted twice within 11 days because of persistent fever. A clinical diagnosis of acute LAV encephalitis was made because of a high index of suspicion and CNS involvement confirmed by positive reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for LAV in the CSF, while her blood was repeatedly negative for LAV by RT-PCR test. She recovered fully following supportive care coupled with treatment with an 18-day course of ribavirin, and suffered no long-term neurological complication or relapse. Post-treatment CSF examination by RT-PCR did not detect LAV.

Development and evaluation of antibody-capture immunoassays for detection of Lassa virus nucleoprotein-specific immunoglobulin M and G.

BACKGROUND: The classical method for detection of Lassa virus-specific antibodies is the immunofluorescence assay (IFA) using virus-infected cells as antigen. However, IFA requires laboratories of biosafety level 4 for assay production and an experienced investigator to interpret the fluorescence signals. Therefore, we aimed to establish and evaluate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) using recombinant Lassa virus nucleoprotein (NP) as antigen. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The IgM ELISA is based on capturing IgM antibodies using anti-IgM, and the IgG ELISA is based on capturing IgG antibody-antigen complexes using rheumatoid factor or Fc gamma receptor CD32a. Analytical and clinical evaluation was performed with 880 sera from Lassa fever endemic (Nigeria) and non-endemic (Ghana and Germany) areas. Using the IFA as reference method, we observed 91.5-94.3% analytical accuracy of the ELISAs in detecting Lassa virus-specific antibodies. Evaluation of the ELISAs for diagnosis of Lassa fever on admission to hospital in an endemic area revealed a clinical sensitivity for the stand-alone IgM ELISA of 31% (95% CI 25-37) and for combined IgM/IgG detection of 26% (95% CI 21-32) compared to RT-PCR. The specificity of IgM and IgG ELISA was estimated at 96% (95% CI 93-98) and 100% (95% CI 99-100), respectively, in non-Lassa fever patients from non-endemic areas. In patients who seroconverted during follow-up, Lassa virus-specific IgM and IgG developed simultaneously rather than sequentially. Consistent with this finding, isolated IgM reactivity, i.e. IgM in the absence of IgG, had no diagnostic value. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The ELISAs are not equivalent to RT-PCR for early diagnosis of Lassa fever; however, they are of value in diagnosing patients at later stage. The IgG ELISA may be useful for epidemiological studies and clinical trials due its high specificity, and the higher throughput rate and easier operation compared to IFA.

Rapid outbreak sequencing of Ebola virus in Sierra Leone identifies transmission chains linked to sporadic cases.

To end the largest known outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and to prevent new transmissions, rapid epidemiological tracing of cases and contacts was required. The ability to quickly identify unknown sources and chains of transmission is key to ending the EVD epidemic and of even greater importance in the context of recent reports of Ebola virus (EBOV) persistence in survivors. Phylogenetic analysis of complete EBOV genomes can provide important information on the source of any new infection. A local deep sequencing facility was established at the Mateneh Ebola Treatment Centre in central Sierra Leone. The facility included all wetlab and computational resources to rapidly process EBOV diagnostic samples into full genome sequences. We produced 554 EBOV genomes from EVD cases across Sierra Leone. These genomes provided a detailed description of EBOV evolution and facilitated phylogenetic tracking of new EVD cases. Importantly, we show that linked genomic and epidemiological data can not only support contact tracing but also identify unconventional transmission chains involving body fluids, including semen. Rapid EBOV genome sequencing, when linked to epidemiological information and a comprehensive database of virus sequences across the outbreak, provided a powerful tool for public health epidemic control efforts.